I’m surprised there hasn’t been more of this kind of thing. You know, doom and gloom predictions on the state of the ad market. Paul Kedrosky’s been blogging pretty actively about the bearish bloggers metaphorically stockpiling canned food and water in their basements, but there’s not been nearly as much public anxiety about softer ad spending.
It could be simply that much of what I read is about the online ad market, where the consensus is mostly that healthy growth will continue this year and beyond. But oddly enough it’s in this area that I think we’ll see the most uncertainty and upset. No-one but a sucker would bet on robust TV ad spending in ‘08, but I can also see a lot of brands and their agencies pulling back on riskier, unproven approaches. In the face of soft(er) consumer spending, placing bets on large-scale social media campaigns or mobile advertising, for instance, could make you a hero but it could also mean you’re first against the wall when the layoffs come.
Overall it’s likely that 2008 will sharpen focus on ROI, and we’ll see a cautious pullback on unproven channels. In other words the biggest risk is that advertising innovation will be mostly underfunded.
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